Enclosed is a Dec 2009/yearend sales report for Baldwin County.
This Data if from all property transactions that have been recorded at the Baldwin County Courthouse.
Please take into account that this does include the entire county and south Baldwin County comprises 60-70% of the entire property transaction volume of the county and in the Condominium category South Baldwin comprises 94-98% of all of the transactions reported.
The report has two main informational boxes, the box on the left contains "Number of sales" and the box on right contains "Dollar volume of sales"
The categories run concurrently within each box. Note: Single Family and Condominium have three categories, new sales, resales and total sales.
Good News!
The 2009 yearend numbers are very encouraging!
Condominium resale category with a year over year (YOY) increase of 12.93%.
Residential lots showed a 4.86% increase YOY.
Single family resales for the entire county only showed a 1.32% decrease YOY.
Bad News
I am certain that by now that you realize I am concentrating on the positives, and if you look in to the New Sales categories you will see alot of huge decreases . Or if you look at the Dollar volumes in the box on the right you will see alot of blood.
In regards to the New Sales decreases in the Single Family category, that category is just going to take more time to recover, foreclosures and unfriendly banking practices are going too continue to wound that sector for some time to come.
In regards to New Sales decreases in Condominiums, you have to realize there are only two new projects on the beach at this time, Turquoise Place and Phoenix West II. At this time the Phoenix West II project is stalled and Turquoise Place is going to be slow closing their $800K-$2Million units. So to translate...... New Sales will be slow for several years to come. It could be four or five years away before we start seeing new developments on the Beachfront! I believe the next beachfront developments we will see will be single family homes, more small hotels (that can find financing) and the beach clubs for larger of beach developments, like The Wharf.
Dollar Volumes
As I said above there is alot of blood on this side of the report. At this time I have no way of forecasting when this bleeding will abate. However I believe we do have a couple of indicators too watch and that is the last two categories in Number of Sales Box on the left, Total Foreclosures and Total Notices of Default. These two numbers will be pivotal as we progress through this year. National forecasters are predicting that we will start to see some improvement in the foreclosure situation.
Where we have been = Where we are going?
Below I have enclosed the Yearend sales reports dating back to 2006 to give you some perspective on where we were before this debacle got rolling down hill. These reports will show you the sales dating back to 2005.
Yearend 2008
Positives
Increase in Resales of Condominiums 10.36%
Negatives
Everything else!
Note the data provider ahd just started collecting data on Notices of default.
Yearend 2007
Positives
They are hard to find in this report
Overall Volume is very high at almost 14,000 properties
Total Foreclosures are only 3% of the Total Sales
Negatives
Every category has a representative negative number!
Foreclosures are just starting to get rolling.
Yearend 2006
Positives
Total Volume 2006 = 17,125 2005 = 21,787 Big numbers!
Foreclosures are practically nonexistent
Negatives
This was the beginning of the beginning and we are just starting to see decreases across the board.
Closing
In closing I want to say our market is definitely starting to turn the corner. What we really need is an improvement in the Banking sector so that we can get the economy going again across the board. Our market has always responded quickly when the economy is in a positive
Our market has traditionally been a second home/investment home market with a big push starting to take place in the retirement sector. Developers need to keep this in mind when designing our future developments. Over amenitize to appeal to their kids and grandkids and keep it simple, convenient and if possible....Affordable!!
Thanks
Chuck
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